Vector Prediction

The vector prediction of EM errors errors $\nu_i$ is performed using multi-step ARMA predictions described in section 1.9. To test the prediction accuracy "confidence cones" are useful showing not only the expected values of the call rate but also the possible deviations with some "confidence level", say 90 or 99%. These cones are defined empirically as upper and lower limits of the results obtained by repetition of Monte Carlo procedures (see section 1.9).